Politics 101

US is the most powerful country on earth. It is ruled by a system of government that was designed with robust checks and balance. It is fundamentally a democratic government that faced with any significant event, obtains feed back to the highest echelon a corrective action that majority of people deem appropriate. Since it is not a direct democracy where each issue is voted on, and rather is a representative form of government, some times there is a delay in the corrective action willed by the majority to reach the highest echelon.

So the power ultimately rests with the majority. This piece is a simplified analysis of what this majority is and speculation about the dynamics of this majority.

Demography is a major factor in determining the majority. By that reasoning, in US

70% - Caucasians

30% - Minorities.

However, there is another factor that comes into play. i.e. gender. If you take 30,000 feet above the ground look at the problem, trying to identify the forest rather than individual trees, we end up gathering the crowd (statistical) behavior rather than individual behavior. By that measure:

White Male – 35% - Republican core supporters

Minorities - 30% - Democratic core supporters

I know, I know there are individuals in both spectra who don’t belong to the categories we have allocated. However we are looking at statistical tendencies and not quibble about individual preferences. What we are saying though is that however badly the republican ruling combine behaves, there is a solid 35% support for that. If you fall below that you as a republican are in real trouble (Bush II is flirting around 29%, Nixon before his resignation was around 25%).

The interesting aspect to the whole equation is the behavior of white females in whose hands the power ultimately rests. If they split 50/50 then,

White male+50% white female – 35+17.5 = 52.5% - republican supporters

Minorities + 50% white females – 30+17.5=47.5 % - Democratic supporters

This number should be familiar to us – that is the kind of margin that usually sweeps the polls. Reagan won it that way against Carter and Dukakis.

If they split it 40/60 then,

White males + 40% white female – 35+14 = 49 – republican supporters

Minorities + 60% white females – 30+21=51 – democratic supporters

This was the kind of number Clinton had when he won against Bush I. Of course he had a higher split when he won against Dole for his second term.

So what is the moral of the story? The fulcrum of political power rests firmly in the hands of white females. If they organize themselves, they can move the nation to the direction they want. How do they organize? If they can start a book club or a tennis league, they can easily use the same technique to organize similar interest power groups. They don’t have to stage a grand protest like Cindy Sheehan. They can do some thing much more powerful – they can write to their representatives as a group. Any representative worth one’s salt would sit up and take notice.

Some feed back from organizations like,

Moms for Health care

Moms for Homeless

Moms for Secure Homeland

etc.

would act like a charm in getting the voices heard in Washington. (“Women” is ok but “Mom” is the best hammer you can use against the curmudgeons in Washington)

In short,

Know your representatives

Organize

Communicate your concerns.

Watch democracy do its magic.